Short-term load forecasting using bayesian neural networks learned by Hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm

This paper presents a short term load forecasting model based on Bayesian neural network (shorted as BNN) learned by the Hybrid Monte Carlo (shorted as HMC) algorithm. The weight vector parameter of the Bayesian neural network is a multi-dimensional random variable. In learning process, the Bayesian neural network is considered as a special Hamiltonian dynamical system, and the weights vector as the system position variable. The HMC algorithm is used to learn the weight vector parameter with respect to Normal prior distribution and Cauchy prior distribution, respectively. The Bayesian neural networks learned by Laplace algorithm and HMC algorithm and the artificial neural network (ANN) learned by the BP algorithm were used to forecast the hourly load of 25 days of April (Spring), August (Summer), October (Autumn) and January (Winter), respectively. The roots mean squared error (RMSE) and the mean absolute percent errors (MAPE) were used to measured the forecasting performance. The experimental result shows that the BNNs learned by HMC algorithm have far better performance than the BNN learned by Laplace algorithm and the neural network learned BP algorithm and the BNN learned by HMC has powerful generalizing capability, it can welly solve the overfitting problem.     

A robust hybrid multi-criteria decision making methodology for contractor evaluation and selection in third-party reverse logistics

Due to green legislations, industries track the used products through reverse logistics contractors. A reverse logistics programme offers significant cost savings in procurement, transportation, disposal and inventory carrying. Since reverse logistics operations and the supply chains they support are considerably more complex than traditional manufacturing supply chains, it can be offered to third party contractors. But availability of more number of contractors make evaluating and selecting the most efficient Reverse Logistics Contractor (RLC) a challenging task and treated as a multi-criteria decision making problem. In this paper, a hybrid method using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solutions (TOPSIS) is proposed. AHP is used to obtain the initial weights and Fuzzy TOPSIS is used to get the final ranking. A case study demonstrates the application of the proposed method. Finally sensitivity analysis is carried out to confirm the robustness.     

Novel associative classifier based on dynamic adaptive PSO: Application to determining candidates for thoracic surgery

Association rule mining is a data mining technique for discovering useful and novel patterns or relationships from databases. These rules are simple to infer and intuitive and can be easily used for classification in any domain that requires explanation for and investigation into how the classification works. Examples of such areas are medicine, agriculture, education, etc. For such a system to find wide adoptability, it should give output that is correct and comprehensible. The amount of data has been growing very fast and so has the search space of these problems. So we need to change traditional methods. This paper discusses a rule mining classifier called DA-AC (dynamic adaptive-associative classifier) which is based on a Dynamic Particle Swarm Optimizer. Due to its seeding method, exemplar selection, adaptive parameters, dynamic reconstruction of regions and velocity update, it avoids premature convergence and provides a better value in every dimension. Quality evaluation is done both for individual rules as well as entire rulesets. Experiments were conducted over fifteen benchmark datasets to evaluate performance of proposed algorithm in comparison with six other state-of-the-art non associative classifiers and eight associative classifiers. Results demonstrate competitive performance of proposed DA-AC while considering predictive accuracy and number of mined patterns as parameters. The method was then applied to predict life expectancy of post operative thoracic surgery patients.     

Leveraging clustering approaches to solve the gray-sheep users problem in recommender systems

Recommender systems apply data mining and machine learning techniques for filtering unseen information and can predict whether a user would like a given item. This paper focuses on gray-sheep users problem responsible for the increased error rate in collaborative filtering based recommender systems. This paper makes the following contributions: we show that (1) the presence of gray-sheep users can affect the performance – accuracy and coverage – of the collaborative filtering based algorithms, depending on the data sparsity and distribution; (2) gray-sheep users can be identified using clustering algorithms in offline fashion, where the similarity threshold to isolate these users from the rest of community can be found empirically. We propose various improved centroid selection approaches and distance measures for the K-means clustering algorithm; (3) content-based profile of gray-sheep users can be used for making accurate recommendations. We offer a hybrid recommendation algorithm to make reliable recommendations for gray-sheep users. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to propose a formal solution for gray-sheep users problem. By extensive experimental results on two different datasets (MovieLens and community of movie fans in the FilmTrust website), we showed that the proposed approach reduces the recommendation error rate for the gray-sheep users while maintaining reasonable computational performance.     

A weighted multivariate Fuzzy C-Means method in interval-valued scientific production data

Clustering is the process of organizing objects into groups whose members are similar in some way. Most of the clustering methods involve numeric data only. However, this representation may not be adequate to model complex information which may be: histogram, distributions, intervals. To deal with these types of data, Symbolic Data Analysis (SDA) was developed. In multivariate data analysis, it is common some variables be more or less relevant than others and less relevant variables can mask the cluster structure. This work proposes a clustering method based on fuzzy approach that produces weighted multivariate memberships for interval-valued data. These memberships can change at each iteration of the algorithm and they are different from one variable to another and from one cluster to another. Furthermore, there is a different relevance weight associated to each variable that may also be different from one cluster to another. The advantage of this method is that it is robust to ambiguous cluster membership assignment since weights represent how important the different variables are to the clusters. Experiments are performed with synthetic data sets to compare the performance of the proposed method against other methods already established by the clustering literature. Also, an application with interval-valued scientific production data is presented in this work. Clustering quality results have shown that the proposed method offers higher accuracy when variables have different variabilities.     

Efficient communication architecture for the C2C agent

In C2C communication, all necessary information must be collected promptly when a buyer and a seller communicate. That is, an intelligent C2C agent is needed to provide information to buyers and sellers. Along with the evolution of computing technology, C2C agents can exploit the efficient delivery capabilities of peer-to-peer (P2P) technology. However, P2P also increases traffic between agents, but communication faults are a fatal problem for C2C business. This study proposes a robust communication architecture based on current P2P content-delivery standards and its efficiency and robustness have been verified from an experiment.     

无水硫酸氢钾催化合成3-烷氧基噻吩

以CuBr为催化剂,N-甲基-2-吡咯烷酮为溶剂,在110℃用3-溴噻吩与过量的甲醇钠进行取代反应合成3-甲氧基噻吩,收率为82.3%。再以无水KHSO4为催化剂,3-甲氧基噻吩分别与乙醇、丙醇、丁醇、戊醇、己醇和辛醇在105~115℃反应2.5、2.5、3、3.5、3.5和3.5h,合成了3-乙氧基噻吩、3-丙氧基噻吩、3-丁氧基噻吩、3-戊氧基噻吩、3-己氧基噻吩和3-辛氧基噻吩,收率分别为75.8%、73.5%7、0.4%、68.7%、66.3%、55.3%。这些化合物结构都通过IR1、HNMR和MS进行了表征,还进行了初步香味评价。结果表明它们都具有基本肉香味的特征。     

Detecting criminal organizations in mobile phone networks

The study of criminal networks using traces from heterogeneous communication media is acquiring increasing importance in nowadays society. The usage of communication media such as mobile phones and online social networks leaves digital traces in the form of metadata that can be used for this type of analysis. The goal of this work is twofold: first we provide a theoretical framework for the problem of detecting and characterizing criminal organizations in networks reconstructed from phone call records. Then, we introduce an expert system to support law enforcement agencies in the task of unveiling the underlying structure of criminal networks hidden in communication data. This platform allows for statistical network analysis, community detection and visual exploration of mobile phone network data. It enables forensic investigators to deeply understand hierarchies within criminal organizations, discovering members who play central role and provide connection among sub-groups. Our work concludes illustrating the adoption of our computational framework for a real-word criminal investigation.     

A new approach of audio emotion recognition

A new architecture of intelligent audio emotion recognition is proposed in this paper. It fully utilizes both prosodic and spectral features in its design. It has two main paths in parallel and can recognize 6 emotions. Path 1 is designed based on intensive analysis of different prosodic features. Significant prosodic features are identified to differentiate emotions. Path 2 is designed based on research analysis on spectral features. Extraction of Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficient (MFCC) feature is then followed by Bi-directional Principle Component Analysis (BDPCA), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural classification. This path has 3 parallel BDPCA + LDA + RBF sub-paths structure and each handles two emotions. Fusion modules are also proposed for weights assignment and decision making. The performance of the proposed architecture is evaluated on eNTERFACE’05 and RML databases. Simulation results and comparison have revealed good performance of the proposed recognizer.     

An improved global-best harmony search algorithm for faster optimization

In this paper, an improved global-best harmony search algorithm, named IGHS, is proposed. In the IGHS algorithm, initialization based on opposition-based learning for improving the solution quality of the initial harmony memory, a new improvisation scheme based on differential evolution for enhancing the local search ability, a modified random consideration based on artificial bee colony algorithm for reducing randomness of the global-best harmony search (GHS) algorithm, as well as two perturbation schemes for avoiding premature convergence, are integrated. In addition, two parameters of IGHS, harmony memory consideration rate and pitch adjusting rate, are dynamically updated based on a composite function composed of a linear time-varying function, a periodic function and a sign function in view of approximate periodicity of evolution in nature. Experimental results tested on twenty-eight benchmark functions indicate that IGHS is far better than basic harmony search (HS) algorithm and GHS. In further study, IGHS has also been compared with other eight well known metaheuristics. The results show that IGHS is better than or at least similar to those approaches on most of test functions.